According to the report, Indonesia is expected to achieve 100% electrification by 2025, followed by the Philippines in 2028.
The ASEAN region will achieve 100% household electrification by 2040, a report by the ASEAN Centre for Energy said.
This is one of the key findings of the intergovernmental organization’s ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8) flagship report which was recently launched during the 42nd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting and Associated Meetings, held in conjunction with the 24th ASEAN Energy Business Forum (AEBF-24) in Vientiane, Lao PDR.
According to the report, Indonesia is expected to achieve 100% electrification by 2025, followed by the Philippines in 2028.
AE08 key findings and projections
Projections for specific countries are:
- As of 2022, clean cooking access rate will require more effort to achieve full penetration by 2030, with Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and the Philippines having yet to achieve 50%.
- Nuclear energy would exist in all scenarios except the Baseline Scenario (BAS), from 2035 onward, with the highest supply projected to be around 13.8 Mtoe in the ATS by 2050. This indicates the region’s resolute commitment to expanding nuclear energy, especially in the Philippines.
- The Philippines, Viet Nam and Indonesia will emerge as major contributors to job creation under the RAS, primarily due to large-scale RE projects.
- The increased land use across all scenarios is attributed to accelerated installation capacities, driven by enabling policies implemented by Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Analysis shows that solar and wind could require 5 million Ha by 2050, mostly in Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
- Viet Nam is expected to experience the largest impact on land use for renewable energy, particularly for wind and solar power, with 3 million hectares dedicated by 2050. The Philippines will account for 12%, while Thailand and Lao PDR will contribute 9% each.
About the report
The report offers a more comprehensive analysis and projections for each energy sector in the Philippines and other ASEAN nations, ranging from electricity to energy efficiency, covering the period from 2022 to 2050 and aligning with ASEAN’s efforts to carbon neutrality.
Acknowledging the diverse energy demands and situations across each country, AEO8 presents four distinct scenarios for a more comprehensive analysis of ASEAN’s energy landscape.
The Baseline Scenario (BAS) explores pathway of no additional efforts on the energy efficiency and renewable energy policy as a reference point.
The ASEAN Member States (AMS) Target Scenario (ATS) highlights the impact of current national targets and policies, showing potential outcomes if current strategies are sustained.
The Regional Aspiration Scenario (RAS) is the least-cost optimization in the power sector while keeping 2025 APAEC targets and other regional standards, whenever possible, and using the additional constraints beyond 2025. Lastly, the Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS) emphasizes decarbonization efforts using optimization of low-emission technologies while keeping the 2025 APAEC targets.
Summary
In summary, the AEO8 revealed that ASEAN end-use consumption is still dominated by industry and transport sectors, with coal and oil products dominating respectively.
Overall, the final energy demand is expected to grow 2.6 times from 2022 to 2050.
- In 2022, ASEAN’s installed power capacity was predominantly reliant on fossil fuels, making up around 66.4% of the energy mix. While fossil fuels will continue to play a significant role without policy interventions, the ATS and RAS scenarios are expected to accelerate the shift towards renewable energy (RE), reducing the region’s dependency on gas, coal, and oil as electricity demand increases. By 2050, the ATS scenario forecasts a 28.9% decrease in fossil fuel reliance.
- Emerging technologies start to enter to ASEAN energy mix. For example, in the CNS, nuclear and tidal & wave in installed capacity are projected to exist starting from 2032 and 2035, respectively. New fuels in demand sector include Hydrogen and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which will be introduced in the region’s TFEC by 2023 and 2025, respectively.
- By 2040, the AMS Target Scenario (ATS) projects ASEAN will achieve 100% household electrification. Both the RAS and CNS scenarios share the same projections. The ASEAN region faces challenges in providing universal electrification due to many remote and hard-to-reach areas. Indonesia is expected to achieve 100% electrification by 2025, followed by the Philippines in 2028 with an annual average growth rate (AAGR) of 0.65% between 2022 and 2028.
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